Last night, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a 2-year deal worth $62 million. The deal, as would be expected of a Scott Boras client, has an opt-out after the first year, which essentially makes this a one-year contract. Snell will receive $15 million in 2024, and a $17 million signing bonus that will not be paid until January, 2026. That leaves a $30 million player option for 2025, which Snell will only exercise if he underperforms this season.
https://t.co/Vl8B3yDTPG. Blake Snell agrees to Giants deal after late, last-ditch Yankees talk doesn’t work out @nypostsports
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 19, 2024
The deal for Snell was a final off-ramp for what was a disastrous off-season for the left-handed pitcher. Here are a list of projected deals for Snell after he rejected the Padres’ qualifying offer:
- MLB Trade Rumors: 7 years / $200 million.
- CBS Sports: 5 years / $135 million.
- The Athletic: 5 years / $122 million.
- Bleacher Report: 3 years / $100 million (with 2 opt outs)
But predictions be damned. Bob Nightengale of The USA Today reported in January that the Yankees had made a 6/$150 million offer to Snell. Boras, on Snell’s behalf, responded with 9 years and $270 million. Suffice it to say, no deal was ever consummated. And, just a couple of days ago, Nightengale reported that the Houston Astros were interested, but balked at Boras’ offer of 2 years, $66 million.
So, in lieu of the Yankees nine-figure offer, or the other deals that Boras kept floating as possible, Snell agreed to another season where he needs to prove his worth.
Putting aside Snell and Boras misjudging the market, what makes this deal so interesting is that the Giants’ have now signed two free agents in the past two weeks, both of whom had previously received qualifying offers. As such, both deals will cost the club more than just the dollars on the respective contracts.
When the Giants signed Matt Chapman to play third base, they forfeited their second-round draft pick (#51 overall) in the 2024 draft and $500,000 of international bonus pool money. Then, with the Snell signing, they will now lose their third pick (#88) and another $500,000. In a vacuum, those numbers could simply be viewed as the cost of doing business to acquire two top-tier free agents. But, nature abhors a vacuum, and the Giants are dealing with the very real possibility that they will lose two draft picks, $1,000,000 in international bonus pool money, and both players at the end of the 2024 season (Chapman also has an opt-out).
The Giants won 79 games last season, finishing in fourth place and 21 games out of first in the National League West. They have improved their roster slightly this off-season, as, in addition to Chapman and Snell, they added Jorge Soler to be the everyday DH. Robbie Ray will join the rotation, but the club lost Mitch Haniger and Brandon Crawford. Signing Pablo Sandoval and Nick Ahmed are not going to move the needle in very competitive division. To put a finer point on it, the Giants have staked $50 million ($18 million to Chapman and $32 million to Snell), multiple early-round draft picks, and a million dollars of international bonus pool money on the 2024 season, without a clear path to the playoffs.
On paper, the Giants have very a tough road to hoe to get past the prohibitive favorite Dodgers, the defending NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks, and the star-filled (and now Dylan Cease-added) San Diego Padres. A lot is riding on these decisions. The Giants may end this season with considerably less on their roster, considerably less in their farm system, and considerably less money to fix their problems.
And if it doesn’t work out, well, after what the team just did to J.D. Davis – utilizing a loophole to cut him and save $5.8 million – that just might be the bad karma they deserve.
