The Atlanta Braves need a test.

Atlanta has the best winning percentage in baseball, currently sitting at .739 after they swept the Miami Marlins at home this week. But there lies the problem: The Braves have already played four series against teams that not only have losing records, but some of the worst records in all of baseball.

The Chicago White Sox are last in all of baseball at 3-22, while the Miami Marlins (who Atlanta’s already played for six games across two series) are currently 6-20 and the Houston Astros are 7-19, a combined winning percentage of just .207.

But the Braves start a three-game home series tonight against the Cleveland Guardians, who not only lead the AL Central but have an MLB-best 18 wins on the 2024 season.

And so it’s an opportunity for the Braves to see how they fair against a team that’s actually good.

Scoring runs

If we were betting people, we’d tell you to consider taking the over in this series. Atlanta and Cleveland are two of the best teams at scoring runs so far in 2024, with Atlanta coming in 1st place with 5.96 runs per game and Cleveland (surprisingly) not far behind at 5.36, good for 4th place.

(We say surprisingly because the Guardians’ offense struggled last season, coming in 27th at just 4.09 runs per game.)

A lot of the improvement is down to hot starts from some of the non-José Ramírez hitters on the squad. First baseman Josh Naylor has been red-hot this season, currently sitting on a .295/.336/.557 slash with six homers and 20 RBIs, leading the team in homers and second to Ramírez in RBIs. Outfielder Steven Kwan, who won a Gold Glove in left field last season, is sporting career highs in all three components of the slash line with a .346/.382/.452, as well as leading the AL in runs with 22 and already 1/3rd of the way to his season high in homers (6, in 2022) with two bombs in just his first 110 plate appearances.

Only three lineup regulars have batting averages below .250, with catcher Bo Naylor (.186), SS Brayan Rocchio (.205) and CF Tyler Freeman (.221) providing quality defense but not much offensive support to the lineup.

Preventing runs

As long-time readers of Braves Today know, there’s more than one way to get a good run differential. The only team currently higher than Atlanta’s +44 is Cleveland at +49, and that’s due to not only their prolific offense but the quality pitching the Guardians have brought to bear across the season’s first 25 games.

The Guardians’ pitching staff has a top-five ERA, currently at 3.19, with the team’s bullpen paving the way here. While the starters aren’t bad for Cleveland – 10-5, 3.90 ERA – the relievers have been dominant, putting up an 8-2 record and a 2.31 ERA while converting nine of their 12 save opportunities.

Emmanuel Clase is one of baseball’s most dominant relievers right now, both in results and pure stuff. Clase has a minuscule 0.69 ERA with eight saves and a win, while his cutter has the 2nd highest average velocity in all of baseball at 98.5 mph. Of the 137 cutters Clase has thrown so far in 2024, only five have resulted in base hits.

Clase is supported by Hunter Gaddis (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 12.1 IP) and Tim Herrin (1-0, 0.77 ERA in 11.2 IP), while veteran Scott Barlow is available for ancillary save duties when Clase is unavailable (1-2, 3.75 ERA and 1 save).

Pitching Rotation for the Weekend

Here’s how the two teams will configure their rotations for the weekend series:

Friday (7:20 PM ET): LHP Chris Sale (2-1, 4.38 ERA) vs LHP Logan Allen (3-0, 5.06 ERA)
Saturday (7:20 PM ET): RHP Charlie Morton (2-0, 4.70 ERA) vs RHP Tanner Bibee (2-0, 4.44 ERA)
Sunday (1:35 PM ET): RHP Bryce Elder (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs RHP Ben Lively (0-1, 2.38 ERA)

All three games will be broadcast on Bally Sports South.