The Philadelphia Phillies rotation has established itself as one of the best in Major League Baseball over the last week with all five starters impressing as the Phillies have won seven of their last eight games.
The stellar performances of co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola should come as no surprise to Phillies fans. The sheer dominance of Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez and unexpected fifth starter Spencer Turnbull has helped a Phillies team that was hovering around .500 a week ago make a full-scale turnaround that currently has them sitting at 15-9 and just 2.0 games behind the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East.
It’s still hard to fathom the scope of what Phillies pitchers accomplished last week versus the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox. In 44 1/3 innings, Phillies starters collectively allowed only three earned runs and 22 hits while striking out 48 and only walking eight. Digging further, we saw a 112-pitch complete-game shutout from Suárez, followed by Turnbull and Wheeler flirting with no-hitters. Production from the starting rotation is off the charts right now.
Phillies starters, past 6 games:
44.1 IP, 22 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 48 K
0.61 ERA, 0.73 WHIP 🔥
Nola: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Suárez: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Sánchez: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Turnbull: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Wheeler: 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Nola: 8…— John Foley (@2008Philz) April 21, 2024
Will the Phillies starting pitching staff remain this dominant all year long? Probably not. But the early results are pointing to a rotation No. 1 through 5 that could be in the discussion for being among the best in the majors all season.
That has opened up a big question: Who will be in the Phillies rotation in 2025? Let’s take a look at some very likely possibilities.
No. 1: Zack Wheeler
The first pitcher will come as a surprise to no one. When the Phillies extended Zack Wheeler on a $126 million, three-year deal during spring training, they locked up their ace until the end of the 2027 season. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
The move looks like a win for both parties. By extending Wheeler, the Phillies have seemingly increased their competitive window to win a World Series for another three seasons.
In his five-year career with the Phillies, Wheeler is 44-28 with a 3.02 ERA and 713 strikeouts in 660 2/3 innings pitched over 106 starts. The hard-tossing right-handed pitcher was unbelievable in the playoffs in 2023, with a 3-0 record and 35 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings pitched. Wheeler’s nasty splitter left White Sox hitters hacking at the plate on Saturday.
Zack Wheeler, Nasty 86mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/fjPWS0y4xK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2024
So far in 2024, Wheeler’s record has been a bit misleading. Currently sitting at 1-3 with a 2.30 ERA, 38 strikeouts and a 0.89 WHIP in 31 1/3 innings pitched, Wheeler has been a victim of poor run support in four of his first five starts this season. Mark it as a safe bet to pencil Wheeler in again as the Opening Day starter in 2025.
No. 2: Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola is another name that shouldn’t come as a surprise to be starting ball games for the Phillies in 2025. The Phillies re-signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal as a free agent this offseason.
The 30-year-old homegrown talent is likely to finish his career with the Phillies and will now slot into the No. 2 spot in the rotation for years to come. Nola was one of the first members of this roster’s core when he first made his debut in 2015. He wanted the chance to finish what he started in Philadelphia, and now he has the opportunity to chase a championship, and scatter his name across the Phillies All-Time record books.
Nola is off to a great start in 2024. He’s 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA with 26 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP in 31 1/3 innings pitched. The results have been solid following a 2023 season that was inconsistent at best, as he seemed to let his impending free agency get into his head at times.
Getting accustomed to the pitch clock was another factor in his uneven 2023. Finishing 12-9 with a disappointing 4.46 ERA, Nola and the coaching staff made a late-season adjustment that fixed a mechanical flaw, and he has carried that success over into 2024.
No. 3: Ranger Suárez
Ranger Suárez has been on another level to start the 2024 season. The 28-year-old lefty is currently 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched. He followed up his complete game shutout against the Rockies with another scoreless seven innings on Monday against the Cincinnati Reds. That’s now 25 scoreless innings dating back to April 4. Suárez is arguably the best pitcher in the majors right now.
Ranger Suarez has a 1.36 ERA this season — leads all LHP in NL.
Has a 25 inning scoreless streak. Hasn't allowed an earned run since April 6 (4th inning at Nationals). #Phillies
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) April 23, 2024
It’s a safe bet that Suárez will again slot into the No. 3 spot in the rotation. A free agent following the 2026 season, he’ll remain a major part of the rotation for the next three seasons. He has a knack for getting ground ball outs, and with his incredible defense on the mound, can win a game in more than one way without relying on strikeouts.
Can Suárez maintain his current level of success? Right now, his starts are appointment viewing in the Philadelphia area.
No. 4: Cristopher Sánchez
Cristopher Sánchez, Filthy 86mph Back Foot Slider. 😷
10th K pic.twitter.com/Z9g9N8xw9H
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 17, 2024
Ranger Suarez has a 1.36 ERA this season — leads all LHP in NL.
Has a 25 inning scoreless streak. Hasn't allowed an earned run since April 6 (4th inning at Nationals). #Phillies
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) April 23, 2024
Cristopher Sánchez has pitched much better than his numbers in 2024 would indicate. Currently 1-3 with a 3.70 ERA, Sanchez was arguably a victim of poor run support in his first three outings of the season. Aside from a tough game in Cincinnati on Tuesday, and a 4 1/3 inning start against the Washington Nationals, when he allowed six hits and three earned runs, the 27-year-old left-hander has more than done his job at the back end of the Phillies rotation.
Sánchez’s slider kept Rockies hitters honest during his scoreless six-inning start last Wednesday.
Coming out of spring training, many questioned whether the rotation was strong enough with Sánchez as the No. 5 starter. Right now, he’s starting to prove his critics wrong, and if his recent stretch is indicative of a breakthrough on the mound, the Phillies will have him under contract at a controllable cost until he reaches free agency in 2029. If he can fix some flaws fielding his position, Sánchez could be one of the best No. 4 starters come 2025.
No. 5: Mick Abel
I bet some of you are wondering where Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull are, but stay with me. Depending on how Mick Abel handles his first extended taste of Triple-A this season, the Phillies’ current No. 2 prospect should be lacing them up at The Bank in 2025.
Will he start the season in the rotation? That’s a better question to ponder.
Abel should be on pace to make his MLB debut sometime in 2024. Will it be a spot start in July, or a chance to solidify the bullpen late in the season? Maybe a little of both.
Abel has struggled with his control down on the farm and has a record of 1-1 with an alarming 6.94 ERA. His 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings have shown flashes of dominating Triple-A hitters, but walks have haunted Abel early in the season. His nine walks have contributed to his disappointing high ERA and 1.80 WHIP.
How do Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull factor in?
Taijuan Walker is slated to return to the starting rotation following an IL stint with right shoulder soreness. Walker’s results in three rehab starts have been suspect at best. His fastball was only touching the mid-90s during his final rehab start on Sunday. With three years and $54 million remaining on his contract, the Phillies will hope Walker can regain some semblance of the pitcher he was before he signed with the team last offseason.
Is there an alternate reality where the Phillies one day count their losses and send Taijuan Walker packing to the bullpen in a mop-up role? It could happen. Salaries tend to look more affordable after every offseason anyway, right?
Sending Walker to the pen would certainly be disappointing as an investment, but judging by manager Rob Thomson’s recent words, the move isn’t exactly out of the realm of possibility.
Meanwhile, Spencer Turnbull is making it hard for the Phillies to commit to Walker. Signed for a one-year, $2 million deal during spring training as a reclamation project, Turnbull has exceeded expectations in his four starts with a 2-0 record and minuscule 1.23 ERA in 22 innings. He flirted with his second career no-hitter in his last outing against the White Sox on Friday and left the mound after seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit, two walks and six strikeouts.
Wednesday’s start against the Reds could be the last Phillies fans see of Turnbull in the rotation for a while. Even if he becomes a regular rotation piece at some point later in the season, his success will likely motivate him to secure a better free agent deal next offseason on the open market. Unless the Phillies come calling, who can blame him?
These are just some of the factors that could contribute to Abel being part of the Phillies rotation next season. Unless he fails to figure out Triple-A hitters, the 23-year-old would seem likely to be at a stage in his development where trying his hand against major league hitters would be the next logical challenge.
That could all change if top pitching prospect Andrew Painter makes a full recovery from Tommy John surgery and forces his way into the discussion, but 2025 should be the year Abel gets an extended look every five days on the mound.
