Cubs mailbag: The Craig Counsell difference, early reads on Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger and more

Apr 8, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell (left) talks to first baseman Michael Busch (29) during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The answer to so many questions surrounding the Chicago Cubs remains the same: It’s too early to tell. There’s not enough information available to make sweeping conclusions.

That still doesn’t make the first impressions meaningless.

The Cubs are weathering significant injuries and a difficult opening schedule. The roster is solid and supported by a good farm system. The division should be competitive overall, lacking a team as awful as the Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins or Colorado Rockies. That’s kind of the point at the beginning of the season — simply giving yourself a chance.

It’s a long season, but some themes and personalities are already starting to emerge.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.

Watching this team early on, two things stand out. The first is what showing some confidence can do for a player — Christopher Morel didn’t get much support from David Ross. The second is how Craig Counsell more deftly uses the bullpen. Do you think that Jed Hoyer saw those things as issues? — Scott B. 

There’s no need to pile on Ross, who backed Morel throughout his first two seasons in the majors, which yielded tremendous year-over-year growth. Ross consistently gave opportunities to Morel after his limited experience in the upper levels of the farm system. Ross’ coaches helped Morel figure out a better routine as a designated hitter. Ross’ midseason decision to bench Morel for a few games last year allowed him to reset. The questions about Morel’s defense at third base were organizational — and not specific to only the manager.

Counsell readily acknowledges that his reputation as a bullpen whisperer is overblown. As a group, the Milwaukee Brewers consistently found the right formulas. Working with Josh Hader and Devin Williams essentially meant Counsell had to manage for only eight innings before turning the game over to an All-Star closer.

Of course, Hoyer noticed how smoothly a small-market rival incorporated young talent and reorganized the pitching staff on an annual basis. Counsell is on virtually everyone’s short list of the best managers in the game. That’s why he had so much leverage.

Hoyer certainly didn’t agree with every decision Ross made in the dugout. There’s always friction between the front office and the on-field staff. In professional sports, people get fired after late-season collapses. But this situation was more about who Counsell is as a leader than what Ross did wrong. — Patrick Mooney

Any insight into what might be going on with Nico Hoerner? He was so reliable in the field and at the plate last year. He looks lost at the plate now and has made a few bad plays in the field. — John O.

Hoerner’s defense isn’t something to worry about. There was an error in the first game where he tried to turn a double play and the ball got past Michael Busch. The other was in bad weather where he tried to make a play when he probably should have just eaten it. Neither was dreadful, but certainly a little uncharacteristic for Hoerner. He’s been his normal elite self there otherwise, saving a few runs over the first three weeks.

On offense, it looks like he’s ready to break out. There was a spike in strikeouts early, but that’s largely plateaued. Through Monday’s games, he had a 14.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s actually high for him, but it’s going to continue to drop or hold steady. From what I’ve seen from Hoerner, I’ve been a bit encouraged of late.

Yes, that sounds slightly bizarre because the results haven’t been there, but a look beyond the surface-level numbers gives reason for optimism. The most basic number — his .250 BABIP — suggests some luck has to start going his way. It’s too simple to just look at that number, but for a contact hitter with good speed, that’s way too low.

https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1780095115635109912

Beyond that, Hoerner is swinging outside of the zone at a 23.8 percent rate, over 5 percentage points below his previous career low. He could probably up his in-zone swing rate (59.1 percent), but it’s right at last year’s level, so it’s not dreadful. What should really give fans optimism is Hoerner is hitting line drives at a career-high rate (25 percent) and groundballs at a career-low rate (40 percent) while his hard contact (27.5 percent) is higher than any year outside of 2020.

All of that leads to expected numbers that are significantly better than the results. Unless Hoerner panics about his numbers and drastically alters his approach, this should change for the better. And it just isn’t Hoerner’s style to overthink things and change it up just because the results aren’t there. I felt like there were some good signs in the Seattle series, and I expect the results to start coming in short order. If he keeps up these walk numbers or even something close (he’s at 16.1 percent, which will be hard to maintain) and the ball starts to fall, he could be a really quality contact-oriented bat for this lineup. — Sahadev Sharma

Are there any concerns about Cody Bellinger’s slow start on offense? — Matt R. 

First, the good. Bellinger has a .188 BABIP and he’s still barely striking out (16.7 percent) while walking at a 12.5 percent rate. It doesn’t matter how bad the quality of contact is — a .188 BABIP is just ridiculously low.

But that quality of contact just isn’t great. There’s more soft contact than last year, and though he isn’t putting the ball on the ground as much, there are just too many popups or weak fly balls. His line-drive rate (14 percent) is by far the lowest of his career.

Now, these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. (The same could be said with the positive spin above with Hoerner.) It’s not even a month into the season. But that there were concerns about Bellinger’s quality of contact coming into the season does make this worth watching.

This was always the worry with Bellinger. But right now, it’s at the opposite extreme of what occurred last season. The hope has to be that if that quality of contact doesn’t change in the positive direction, his luck will start to even out. The good news for the Cubs is that he has a higher hard-hit percentage than last year.

https://twitter.com/WatchMarquee/status/1777522210111893980

If the hard contact didn’t jump, the reality is that matching last year’s 134 wRC+ was going to be really difficult. But what he is doing right now should still amount to around a 110 wRC+. Not great, but still good enough to have a positive impact on the club. If Seiya Suzuki comes back healthy in a timely manner and Busch can continue to be an impact bat, maybe that’s all they need from Bellinger this year to still be a strong offense.

But yes, it’s hard to not have concerns with Bellinger when just watching him right now. There just aren’t a lot of line drives being hit and not much is falling. Perhaps the most important thing is for him to not lose confidence.

Bellinger admitted that seeing the ball fall last season — even when the quality of contact wasn’t great — allowed him to stick with his process and not tinker too much. That confidence has to carry over into this season. Otherwise, he may try to change things that don’t need to be messed with. That could lead to the type of spiraling we saw when he was in Los Angeles, which nobody wants. — Sharma

How much of a chance was Hoyer given to sign someone like Jordan Montgomery? — Mark S. 

The Cubs were planning to go 1-for-4 with “The Boras Four.” On Opening Day, Hoyer confirmed this year’s budget for baseball operations forced the front office to choose among Bellinger, Montgomery, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman. Scott Boras represented those top free agents as negotiations dragged into spring training, and each player chose a short-term deal that did not match offseason expectations.

“It was late February when those four guys were out there plus a couple other free agents,” Hoyer told 670 The Score, the team’s flagship radio station. “We knew (that) financially we could go after one of those guys and be aggressive to get one of those guys and push. Cody, for us, was the best fit.”

The Cubs had more familiarity with Bellinger after his Comeback Player of the Year season at Wrigley Field. Bellinger’s defensive versatility and left-handed presence in the lineup mesh well with the other parts of the roster. A three-year, $80 million contract with opt-out clauses became a good compromise.

These decisions will be re-examined as the National League playoff race unfolds. The San Francisco Giants guaranteed $116 million to sign Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, and Chapman, a Gold Glove third baseman. Montgomery dropped Boras after signing a one-year, $25 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks and recently switched to the Wasserman agency.

“Of all those guys, (Bellinger) was the right guy for us to pursue,” Hoyer said. “So that was our decision — to go after him.” — Mooney

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